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When Europeans awoke after casting their vote in the last European Elections, 23-26 May 2019, the EU was hit by a “green wave”, sending an unprecedented number of Green members of the European Parliament (MEP), to Brussels. Weeks later, climate was a top priority in the EU budget, and leaders were inched towards a deal on the 2050 climate target.

But when the last citizen votes on the evening of 9 June, this wave will have receded – the Greens are polled to lose 15 seats. The current political mood is far from Greta’s “How dare you” spirit. But with the Greens in retreat, is there a legacy to speak of?

Yes. Beyond the increased ambition of the EU climate targets – 55% less emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions in 2050 – Europe has become significantly more clean in the last five years.

2023 renewable energy production is up a massive 46% compared to 2019 levels, according to a recent analysis by clean-energy think-tank Ember. 

With new wind (+31% capacity) and solar (+113%) primarily replacing fossil fuels, EU power is now 15% cleaner – a single kilowatt-hour of power produces 244g of CO2 in 2023, compared to 287g in 2019.

Yet since 1990, EU GDP grew by 65%.

In 2024, we can confidently assert that our emissions have decoupled from growth. 

Next to renewables, the EU’s emissions trading system (ETS) is the star of the show. Covering power production, industry and aviation – 40% of the economy – the scheme has outpaced wider EU emissions cuts, with a 47% cut since 2005, bolstered by a record-smashing 2023.

This proven system will be extended to road transport and household heating from 2027 with the ETS2, extending the coverage to some 70% of total EU emissions. While costs are borne by citizens, it is fossil fuel vendors who handle the administrative burden.

On climate, the EU is by far the best performing economy in the world – and is becoming an example for other countries.

“The EU has been and can remain a laboratory for an efficient and fair implementation of climate policy,” writes Jos Delbeke, the bloc’s erstwhile top climate bureaucrat, in a new must-read book co-written with climate colleagues.

But environmental protections, appear to be left untouched by the green wave.

Rules clamping down on agricultural impacts on wildlife and plants – like sustainable pesticide rules or the industrial emission limits – were weakened or rejected outright. An attempt at making farmers let 4% of their lands lay fallow – while getting paid – failed.

EPP president in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, who belatedly converted to become an environmentalist in an interview with Euractiv during 2019 green wave, than became one of the first to shift away from the environment. He worked to water down the nature restoration law in 2023, which remains blocked by national governments to this day.

Smaller wins for the environment include more stringent penalties for environmental crime, continuing work on establishing “ecocide” as a serious global offence and the EU’s anti-deforestation rules applied around the globe.

In all, the EU’s political parties can stand proud at the poll when it comes to delivering on the wishes of 2019 voters – although more nature-conscious voters have grounds to be dismayed.

Once the new governing coalitions shake out, change will be inevitable.

But as Delbeke points out: “EU climate policy has reached a point of no return.” While the tides may ebb and flow, the bloc has set a course – and to wrench the ship around would tear it asunder.

Top stories

Pascal Canfin on the Green Deal: 'Job done'

Just a few days to go before the elections on 6 and 9 June, the centre-left electorate has not yet made up its mind, according to Renaissance MEP Pascal Canfin. Designated as the ‘green joker’ or the ‘green deposit’ of Macron, Canfin defends his own record. Interview.

Controversial gas transit fee: Germany caves under pressure

The German government said on Thursday (30 May) it will remove a controversial surcharge on gas passing through the country which EU neighbours said added to the cost of moving away from Russian gas.

Ukrainian ‘ecocide app’ calculates Russia’s bill for environmental damage

Ukraine’s environment has been the “silent victim” of the Russian invasion, according to Ukrainian environment minister Ruslan Strilets, but thanks to app-wielding Ukrainian citizens, he can now put a price on the damage – more than €56 billion so far.

Must reads

• EU Commission strengthens Europe’s crisis response abilities – By Nathan Canas
• Years of EU-Japan hydrogen cooperation finally brings success – By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer
• Energy ministers conclude Belgian Council presidency with ‘EU Supergrid’ plan – By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer
• Renewables ‘the way to go’, Austrian-Spanish alliance signals to new Commission – By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer
• French green industry secures multi-billion euro support in one week – By Paul Messad
• EU energy ministers gather to take final stock – and set post-election agenda – By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer
• Europe faces new China dilemma amid flagging hydrogen dreams – By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer

News from the capitals

EU INSTITUTIONS. Facing headwinds, the Greens push for new audiences. In a push to counter an expected drop in seats in the new European Parliament, the Greens are banking on extending their demographic and geographical base, their lead candidate Terry Reintke told Euractiv. Read more.

BERLIN. German cabinet approves carbon capture and hydrogen plans. Germany’s cabinet approved on Wednesday two draft bills to accelerate the integration of hydrogen and carbon capture respectively, into the country’s energy and industrial systems. Read more.

Warsaw. EU court rules Poland must pay €68m bill in Turow coal mine case. Warsaw will have to pay €68 million in EU fines over the continued operation of the Turow coal mine despite court orders to the contrary, the EU’s lower court ruled, Wednesday. Read more.

News in  brief

Berlin-Rome hydrogen pipeline to North Africa gets Vienna’s blessing. At a signing ceremony in Brussels on Thursday (30 May), the Southern hydrogen corridor pipeline backed in 2023 by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and PM Giorgia Meloni connecting the sun-rich North of Africa to Germany’s industrial South has received the go-ahead from Vienna. 

“Developing the clean energy potential of the African continent and connecting it to Europe -promoting growth and security on both shores of the Mediterranean- is a priority of the Italian Government,” said Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy’s energy minister.

The pipeline project is planned to facilitate the import of millions of up to 4 tons of hydrogen – 40% of the EU target for 2030, although the pipelines are not expected to be operable by then. [Nikolaus J. Kurmayer]

Opinions

• Europe’s climate movement continues to evolve and grow – By Chiara Martinelli
• Testing times for carbon capture and storage – By Chris Davies

On our radar

• 6-9 JUNE: European elections
• 17 JUNE. Environment Council (Luxembourg)
• 27-28 JUNE. European Council

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[Edited by Rajnish Singh]

Read more with Euractiv

Brussels gives conditional approval for €1.7bn German coal exit subsidy

The German government announced on Tuesday (4 June) that it has received approval in principle from Brussels to allocate subsidies worth €1.75 billion to coal major LEAG but with the payout of one-third of the sum contingent upon future power and CO2 prices.