The Brief – Merz in the driving seat in von der Leyen’s campaign

In her first term as Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen was largely free to push through her agenda without having to worry about backlash from her party. If she gets a second mandate, however, this is bound to change, with her conservative CDU party taking a much more prominent role.

When von der Leyen – then a relatively unknown German defence minister – was nominated as Commission president by EU leaders in 2019, it wasn’t her strong standing in the CDU that guaranteed her Europe’s top job. It was the political considerations of the member states, especially France, that gave her the much-needed buoyancy.

Up until that point, she wasn’t even on the radar of the European People’s Party (EPP) that the CDU belongs to.

While von der Leyen was one of Angela Merkel’s closest confidants, having been part of her cabinet for 14 years, she had little political clout within her party, with many saying  she was already past the peak of her political career.

Her power base wasn’t her standing within the CDU – it was the weird nexus of EU countries’ different interests that landed her the Commission job. Von der Leyen was thus able to act relatively free of her party constraints and move more briskly than many of her peers.

This time around, things seem to be very different.

As von der Leyen is now running as the official lead candidate of the EPP and her German subsidiary, the CDU, she will have to rely on the support of her party and adapt to the increasingly conservative party line.

She already had to drop many of her pet projects to be more in line with the CDU, with the flagship Green Deal project being the most prominent collateral damage.

When the CDU is campaigning to cut red tape and lessen the burden of the Green Deal on businesses and farmers, they are indirectly also campaigning against the legacy of their own Commission president – and there is no doubt that they know it.

But the CDU’s influence on their Spitzenkandidat is even more direct: Contacts between von der Leyen and the CDU leader Friedrich Merz have intensified in recent months. According to party sources, the two of them are calling each other on a weekly basis to ensure that they are singing from the same hymn sheet.

While von der Leyen had some standing in Germany during Merkel’s reign, when the CDU followed a more centrist approach, Merz has since steered the party towards a more conservative approach.

This conservative turn will likely also be reflected in von der Leyen’s second term, where she will be more reliant on her party than in her first term, and much more mindful of how far she can veer off the party script.

The Roundup

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (Smer-SD, S&D) was shot on Wednesday afternoon and has been transported to hospital, where he is apparently in life-threatening condition, according to Denník N.

Georgia’s controversial Kremlin-style “foreign agent” law hampers the country’s progress on its EU accession path and should be withdrawn, the European Union said in a watered-down statement on Wednesday.

Spain’s diplomacy chief is due to meet with his UK counterpart and European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič in Brussels on Thursday (16 May) to try to hammer out the final details of a long-awaited agreement on the future status of Gibraltar, Madrid’s diplomatic sources said on Wednesday.

The US increase in tariffs on China’s electric vehicles (EVs) and other products unveiled on Monday is splitting the EU’s centre-left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) along the lines of a Franco-German divide on whether Europe should follow up with a similar measure.

National governments, NGOs, and scientists are pushing for the Council of the EU to give final approval to the Nature Restoration Law, but a blocking minority in the Council remains opposed to the law.

Including local-content and sustainability criteria in public procurement of food would be compatible with WTO rules and would also bring significant climate and economic benefits, according to a report published on Wednesday by consultancy Carbone 4.

Slovakia is facing political turmoil focused on health minister, Zuzana Dolinková. She survived her first no-confidence vote on 14 May, after only seven months in office. The culture minister also faced a recall in back-to-back votes.

For more policy news, check out this week’s Green Brief and the Health Brief.

Look out for…

• Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas participates in session of Committee of Ministers of Council of Europe on Thursday.
• Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides in London, participates in global ministerial panel on ‘Solving the Antibiotic Emergency’ event on Thursday.
• Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni participates in Brussels Economic Forum debate ‘Green transition in election times’ on Thursday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]