The Brief – New Dutch coalition opts for a politics of defeat in Europe

Less migration, more manure: For EU purposes, that could have been the motto chosen by the four Dutch right-wing parties that agreed this week on a programme for a new government in the Netherlands. Instead, they went for ‘hope, courage and pride’, preferring to address the Dutch voters.

According to the coalition agreement, the Netherlands plans to ask for an opt-out of the European migration policy, among other things. It seems very unlikely this will succeed, as a Dutch Alleingang on migration would be extremely complicated and also simply politically unacceptable for other member states.

They know this, of course.

Still, with this, the new Dutch leaders succeeding to the Rutte generation thus at least give themselves license to complain about a lack of European cooperation in matters of migratory restrictions, in any circumstances.

Something similar applies to the efforts to restore the derogation from the European nitrate policy. For decades, Dutch farmers were allowed to spread more manure than was permitted elsewhere in the EU, relying on the water-rich soil in the river delta landscape.

Since the Netherlands did not meet the associated conditions for decades, chances of achieving a new exceptional position, in reality, are very small – but then again, they know this.

And again it seems the new Dutch leaders are going for the conscious politics of defeat. The signal: We prefer a collision course over results in Europe. Other plans testify to the same attitude, from pulse fishing to a firm opposition to any EU enlargement.

What does this say about the role the Netherlands wants to play in Europe? Is this the signature of a far right-wing leadership by Geert Wilders?

In a way, yes.

It was precisely years of uncompromising agenda-setting and defeat that finally brought Wilders victory in the ballot box last year. Collision has more or less become his middle name.

However, the sheer process of government making shows that his power is limited.

In accordance with Dutch political culture, the formation of a government is yet again extremely complicated and slow.  It took Wilders six months to convert his victory in the parliamentary elections in October 2023 into a national coalition agreement that can count on a parliamentary majority. And it came at a high price.

Wilders had to give up his claim to the premiership already weeks ago, consequently, there is now a ‘programme agreement’, and the parties must first look for a prime minister and a cabinet. This is all expected to take another month.

Moreover, the future Dutch head of government might not be a strong player on the European stage, let alone a simple ‘agent’ of Wilders.

The coalition’s political leaders will remain in the Dutch parliament, which means they will all be on the contact list for the new prime minister during EU summits. Wilders might not be the one to unite the team of leaders.

This week’s government programme shows that he had to give up a large part of his election agenda in exchange for their cooperation. Part of the programme even goes directly against his own wishes.

Strengthening the rule of law has become an explicit task for the new government, and he had to agree to political and military support for Ukraine, in a clear break with his previous views. However, the word ‘war’ is significantly avoided in the coalition agreement, there is only a reference to ‘tensions’ due to the Russian ‘invasion’ of Ukraine.

Most of the coalition agreement consists of exchanges between the parties on their respective selling points. The one thing that really unites them is a stronger nationalism, accompanied by a tougher course in Europe.

Disintegration is still too strong a word to use – the promise to be a ‘constructive’ European partner is even explicitly mentioned.

In practice, however, the Netherlands is on its way to becoming the first of the six founding member states to turn towards structural European aloofness.

And that is not just Wilders. It is genuinely shared by the other coalition partners.

The Roundup

The Dutch “citizen-farmers” movement BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) put agriculture among the top priorities in the coalition agreement signed on Thursday with far-right PVV, liberal VVD, and anti-corruption NSC.

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) has defended the country’s billion-euro investments into green steel plants, saying it was needed to avoid a breakdown of whole regions’ industries and secure supply of steel at times of geopolitical uncertainty.

According to experts at the European Maize Congress, Ukraine’s revived capacity to export cereals is now raising questions about competition with EU producers, however, future integration can be an opportunity for the bloc to increase its influence on the global food markets.

The Franco-German parliamentary assembly is set to adopt a declaration advising Paris and Berlin to mend their differences in energy policy and begin moving on hydrogen and geothermal.

Les Entreprises du médicament en France (Leem), an association of French pharmaceutical companies, unveiled its manifesto on Friday ahead of June’s EU elections, with the focus on investing in research and development (R&D) in Europe to avoid falling behind the United States.

The French government cited the decarbonised nature of the country’s electricity mix as an unparalleled asset in attracting foreign investment, but the reality is more complex.

For more policy news, don’t miss this week’s Tech Brief, Agrifood Brief, and the Economy Brief.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Ylva Johansson in Budapest on Monday, meets with Interior Minister Sándor Pintér.
• Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni receives Moldovan PM Dorin Recean on Monday.
• General Affairs Council on Tuesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]