The Brief – Groundhog Day for Europe’s ‘far-right surge’

Too often we speak about the surge of ‘the far-right’ in Europe but we forget this is neither new nor too surprising. The reality is, the far-right is joining the mainstream as we speak. 

Looking at the polls ahead of Sunday, it is clear the far right will make significant gains, as the two political groups in the European Parliament that host far-right parties could secure about 20% of the seats, more than ever before.

It is indeed a nearly four-fold increase since the early 1990s.

Over the past few years, a number of EU member states have significantly veered to the political fringes, with left or progressive parties being pushed out by conservative to far-right ones, with one notable exception of Spain.

Next to the Eastern European countries being ruled by right-wing parties, in four of the six founding EU member states, these parties currently lead in the polls. And Marine Le Pen is largely expected to win the French presidential elections in 2027.

Younger voters are increasingly backing anti-immigration and anti-establishment parties in numbers equal to and even exceeding older voters, according to recent analyses of young people’s political preferences.

But if you look at the public debate and media coverage of the ‘far-right threat’ in the 2019 European elections, you might notice one thing: It feels a bit like ‘Groundhog Day’.

Five years ago, the European polls were marked by what everyone called the ‘surge of the far-right’, with several Western European countries having to face the new political reality, like Belgium, which experienced its second ‘Black Sunday’ after 1991.

Although far-right parties fell short of reaching one-third of all MEPs they had wished for, some key figures had the last laugh.

The biggest individual winner was Hungary’s Prime Minster Viktor Orbán, whose Fidesz party won more than 52% of votes, confirming his iron grip on power.

The same went for his ideological brother-in-arms in Warsaw, Law and Justice party leader Jarosław Kaczyński, whose PiS secured 45.6% of the vote. Never mind them having lost the recent elections in the country, this could be but a short intermezzo.

In Rome, Matteo Salvini essentially doubled in size to 70-75 seats with its Lega party. In France, Le Pen had the strongest showing ever, enough to shake up the political scene and lay the groundwork for what came after.

So, in short: We’ve been there, done that.

What is different this time around is that we’re looking at this election to institutionalise the right-wing power that was there before, but only in fragments.

The creation of a far-right supergroup in the European Parliament remains difficult due to their internal disagreements but it is still possible.

In recent years, we’ve seen a normalisation of the far-right. And it has been made possible because Europe has moved towards much harder, more conservative positions.

Could the success of far-right parties also be put down to them becoming better at selling their modernised image, while their voters have become more radicalised? Perhaps.

A good example of that image change is the rising star of the far right in France, Jordan Bardella, the lower-class son of Italian and Algerian immigrants, who has made Le Pen’s anti-immigration message more respectable.

And then again, far-right doesn’t necessarily equal far-right. Part of its success stems exactly from the fact that they are united in their very own diversity.

Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders’ party holds up anti-migration policy and is in favour of ripping up green commitments but is not anti-parliamentary.

Poland’s Law and Justice has won voters by delivering high-profile social spending pledges unseen in other far-right sister parties across Europe.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni – the likely EU top job kingmaker, who is domestically on the right but has, since taking office, made all the proper political noises – is another good salesman of the success.

Pro-European, pro-NATO, pro-Ukrainian – all three qualities that moved European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to say she could collaborate with parties that are more right-wing than her own centre-right EPP.

The established mainstream parties have only themselves to blame: Many centre-right mainstream parties have grown nervous and tried to incorporate far-right ideas into their own policies to win back voters.

But accommodation doesn’t work, as research shows. Faced with a choice, the more conservative voters will go for the original, the genuine far-right, and not the makeovers.

When the votes are cast and results trickle in on Sunday night, Europe’s Monday morning might have us face a bigger election hangover than in 2019.

In most European countries, the far-right has never dominated governments. But if the trend continues, this could change in the next five-year electoral cycle.

The Roundup

The European Commission said on Friday that both Ukraine and Moldova are sufficiently ready for the formal opening of EU accession talks.

A fake news story claiming that Italy might leave the EU if there was a low turnout at this weekend’s elections shared on Italian social media was taken down by big tech platforms this week.

Agrifood products should be kept out of the current EU-China trade tensions as the Asian giant is a key partner for the sector, EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski told Euractiv.

Calling for greater unity of the international community, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday drew a parallel between the Allied D-Day landings in Normandy and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned Thursday that the EU risked being blocked by a big far-right presence in the European Parliament after this week’s elections.

For more policy news, check out this week’s Economy Brief and the Tech Brief, with the Agrifood Brief coming soon.

Look out for…

• European Parliament elections from 6 – 9 June.
• Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič delivers keynote speech at Europe-Ukraine Energy Transition Hub event in Brussels on

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]