How EU elections affected balances within Italy’s governing coalition

The outcome of the European election results in Italy could be a signal of moderation for the ruling right-wing alliance led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, according to the political analyst Lorenzo Pregliasco.

Although Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) remains the leading Italian party with 28.8%, there has been a notable shift within the ruling coalition.

According to pollster and political analyst Lorenzo Pregliasco, the European election results are “quite inconclusive but certainly an unexpected recognition” for Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani’s centre-right Forza Italia (EPP), which has “successfully appealed to the moderate, liberal centre-right electorate”.

“This demographic saw Forza Italia as an opportunity to send a signal of moderation to the governing coalition,” Pregliasco told Euractiv Italy.

In the 2022 elections, which led to the formation of the current coalition government, Forza Italia trailed slightly behind the far-right Lega (ID), with both parties polling at around 8%.

In the European elections on Sunday, however, the situation was reversed. Forza Italia overtook Transport Minister Matteo Salvini’s Lega by a few tenths of a percentage point, with both parties now on around 9%.

The result is a major setback for Lega, which had hoped to obtain a result similar to the 34% it obtained in the previous 2019 European elections, as Tajani managed to lift Forza Italia, the party founded by the late former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, to the position of second-largest party in the ruling coalition.

“I don’t think there will be any shocks within the majority because, although Forza Italia came out ahead, the Lega still performed better in percentage terms than in the general election,” Pregliasco said.

Other forces remain 

On the liberal side, none of the parties that would have joined the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament secured seats.

Both Azione leader Carlo Calenda and Italia Viva leader Matteo Renzi tried to unite their parties under a single list last year but failed, resulting in two separate lists, neither of which passed the 4% threshold.

“In politics, one plus one does not equal two, so it’s not certain that a single list would have garnered 7%. Who knows?” said Pregliasco.

However, political analysts believe that the outcome of the European election signals a solid liberal presence in the country.

“I don’t think this is the end for liberals in Italy … Considering that their combined votes amount to 7%, and with Forza Italia achieving a nearly 10% result, especially after Berlusconi’s passing, it shows there is still a significant liberal and reformist moderate base,” he said.

Another notable winner in Italy, in contrast to the trend across Europe, was the Alliance of the Greens and the Left (AVS), which exceeded expectations that had placed it at around 4%, almost doubling its 2022 result (3.6%) to reach 6.7%.

Commenting on anti-fascist activist and teacher Ilaria Salis, who faces up to 24 years in prison in Hungary for allegedly attacking three neo-Nazis last year, but will gain immunity through her new role as an MEP as her party obtained the 4% threshold requires for EU Parliament seats, Pregliasco called it an “unexpected success”.

“It’s not solely attributable to the green element because it’s not just a green list; it unites the greens and the radical left,” he added.

He gave his opinion on why some parties were successful: “I think the success lies in choosing the right candidates and positioning on two or three key issues important to progressive voters, including Green issues”.

“I believe they greatly benefited from the decline of the Five Star Movement compared to the general elections. They regained a share of the progressive vote that had shifted to the Five Star Movement during the general elections,” the analyst added.

(Alessia Peretti | Euractiv.it)

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