Lebanon: Refugees, proximity to conflict, instability, make EU leaders nervous

Fearing new migration waves toward Europe, European Union leaders are looking at ways to support Lebanon with an economic aid package expected to be delivered by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the coming days.

One EU diplomat told Euractiv that it’s important for Lebanon to remain stable especially in case of further escalation in the region due to recent events between Israel, Gaza, and Iran.

“Cyprus and Lebanon will be the first geographical victims”, one EU diplomat said.

Two diplomats said Nicosia is particularly concerned about potential large migration flows to the island, and raised the issue with EU partners.

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides and EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, informed EU leaders about the significance of Lebanon, ahead of their trip to Beirut on 2 May, with the former saying a new EU economic package will be announced at that meeting.

“A specific package of economic support for the country [Lebanon] will be announced for the management of migration, but also for the country itself, which is facing multiple challenges, which I believe will be another step in this holistic approach of ours, to deal with migration”, Christodoulides said.

Euractiv understands that the package could resemble the so-called “cash-for-migrants” deals the EU signed with Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt over the past few months.

Military support for Lebanon

In the summit’s conclusions, the leaders stated their objective to work with all partners in the region to avoid further escalation, “notably Lebanon”.

“The EU recalls its strong support for Lebanon and the Lebanese people and acknowledges the difficult circumstances Lebanon is experiencing domestically and as a result of regional tensions”, the text adopted by the EU leaders at their summit says.

“In this context, the European Union remains committed to the stability of Lebanon, including through supporting much-needed reforms, and to strengthening its support to the Lebanese Armed Forces”, the leaders added.

It is for the moment unclear how the EU member states would be supporting the military in the country.

The EU has been involved in military support – lethal and non-lethal – in neighbouring countries under with the intergovernmental common fund European Peace Facility (EPF).

Lebanon has already been allocated €6 million worth of assistance, particularly for healthcare equipment.

For more than one year, Lebanon has been governed by a caretaker government due to a political impasse in the election of president, while Beirut has been struggling financially for over four years.

Smugglers set to capitalise

A source familiar with the matter in Nicosia, who preferred to remain anonymous, told Euractiv that intelligence suggests that people smugglers have been coming up with new plans that take advantage of political fears of further escalation between Israel and Iran.

Contacted by Euractiv, former Lebanese defence minister Yacoub Sarraf said having migration waves from Lebanon to Cyprus is not a “possibility” but a “fact”.

“We often face problems with boats leaving from Lebanon to Cyprus […] whether we like it or not, we are involved in the ongoing conflicts”, he said.

“People tend to forget that we have 400,000 Palestinian refugees, who have been here for 75 years. And there is a great rumour that an exacerbation of the conflict in occupied Palestine might create another wave of migration to Lebanon”, he added.

In addition, Lebanon hosts over 1.5 million Syrian refugees, contributing to the fact the country hosts the most refugees per capita and square kilometre in the world.

This, combined with the country’s ongoing socio-economic crisis, political instability, and the prevalence of conflicts in the south of the country, has led to significant problems that impact both refugees but also the general population.

The UNHCR estimates that over 50% of people in Lebanon live below the poverty line and some 90% of Syrian refugees cannot meet their basic needs such as access to healthcare, food, and education and must turn to humanitarian assistance instead.

Israel’s attacks in Gaza and within Lebanon’s borders have resulted in the internal displacement of nearly 100,000 people so far, with fears abound that the slightest trigger could create waves of further internal, and then external migration to the EU.

In recognition of this, the EUCO conclusions included another paragraph referring to the country, confirming the EU’s determination to support the most vulnerable people in Lebanon, “including refugees, internally displaced persons and host communities in need.”

“The European Council reaffirms the need to achieve conditions for safe, voluntary and dignified returns of Syrian refugees, as defined by UNHCR,” it continues.

Many promises, little change

Referring to the EU help toward his country, Sarraf said many promises were made in the past but in practice, nothing changed.

“We were promised in 2006 help to build up the capacity of the Lebanese army. And it never happened. And the same thing in 2016 when I was again minister of defence and we organised a conference in Rome”, he said.

Sarraf noted that the main problem is that Europe does not see Lebanon as a partner in the region and provides assistance, to essentially protect itself.

“The issue is not to protect Europe from migration but to help Lebanon mitigate the problem of migration in Lebanon in the first place”, he noted.

Sarraf stressed that Beirut is ready to discuss with Europe and has “its terms”.

“To whom are you sending assistance? Until now, the UNHCR are refusing to give us the data about the refugees they are funding in Lebanon”, he concluded.

*Additional reporting by Alice Taylor

(Edited by Alice Taylor | Euractiv.com)

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