The Brief – The treaty change window slams shut

In theory, political convention requires the leaders of the EU27 to decide on whether to open a new convention on EU treaty reform after the European Parliament formally demanded one. 

In practice, however, treaty reform was not on the agenda at last week’s European Council summit that was (unsurprisingly) dominated by enlargement and economic aid for Ukraine, and yet another political stand-off with Hungary.

While federalist MEPs and lobby groups will continue to demand a convention, the truth is that the window to reform the treaties has been missed, at least for the foreseeable future. 

While the EU is more agile than it gets credited for in times of crisis – the bailout fund agreed in the midst of the eurozone debt crisis, and the €700 billion post-pandemic recovery fund being cases in point – previous treaty reforms have been made during periods of political and economic stability.  

The political stability that existed two years ago when Emmanuel Macron proposed the idea no longer exists following the war in Ukraine and the rise of the nationalist right.

MEPs did not help the reform cause by appointing a group of five staunch integrationists, led by the veteran Belgian federalist Guy Verhofstadt, one of Europe’s most polarising politicians, to draw up a predictably ambitious wishlist of reforms.  

The Parliament text would give exclusive competence to the EU on climate change negotiations and extend the number of shared competences to include public health; education; foreign affairs, external security and defence; civil protection; industry; external border policy; and cross-border transport infrastructure.  

Many of these proposals are sensible. So, too, is limiting the size of an already bloated European Commission.  

But some federalist pet projects, such as transnational lists to elect MEPs, increased Parliament involvement in budget negotiations, and ending vetoes on foreign policy are simply not going to fly.  

The Parliament’s demands only barely scraped a majority. Including abstentions, their report was backed by fewer than half the MEPs – 305 votes to 276 against.

The centre-right European People’s Party, which has always been a driver of treaty reform in the past, was divided in the final vote because of a proposal seeking to limit the number of EU Commissioners. 

That lukewarm support among MEPs gave EU leaders another excuse to kick the can.  

Likewise, the composition of the EU institutions is unlikely to be more integrationist in the coming years. 

Although Donald Tusk’s new centrist coalition in Poland has ousted the nationalist Law and Justice party, nationalist and far-right parties continue to poll strongly. In the Netherlands, France, and Italy, all core EU member states, they are either in government or lead the opposition.

And while it is a gross exaggeration to talk of a far-right takeover in Brussels, they only need to be in government in a handful of countries to halt any further EU integration. 

Federalists are hoping that treaty reform will be voted on in early 2024, with the possibility of opening a convention following the June European elections.

That looks increasingly unlikely, and with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán set to take over the EU Council presidency next July, the window for reform will slam shut. 

The Roundup

EU ministers are ready to fund walls, fences, and barbed wire in third countries to prevent migrants’ departures, and boost surveillance at EU borders as part of a migration ‘solidarity’ mechanism, according to closed-doors negotiations among EU lawmakers on Monday and Tuesday.

France could soon build several nuclear reactors in Sweden, according to a letter of intent signed by the two countries’ energy ministers on the sidelines of the EU’s Energy Council on Tuesday.

By refusing to table a target for 2030, France is failing to implement the EU’s renewable energy directive, the European Commission said on Monday (18 December) as part of its “recommendations” on the country’s draft National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).

Europe’s ambitious targets to replace increasing quantities of fossil kerosene with green aviation fuels will be extremely challenging to meet – though with a broad and evolving mix of fuel sources, as well as sustained political and industry support, it is within grasp.

With the last negotiating session approaching next month, the private sector and civil society are increasingly questioning the compatibility of the UN Cybercrime Convention draft text with EU values and human rights standards.

European countries are miles away from comprehensive post-stroke care plans that look beyond healthcare and are failing to collect basic data on the lives of stroke patients, health stakeholders have warned.

Last but not least, do not miss this year’s last Transport Brief: The year Europe finalised its path to greener transport.

Look out for…

• Informal video conference of economy and finance ministers on Wednesday.
• Commissioner Iliana Ivanova delivers keynote speech at launch of Kyiv Horizon Europe Office in Brussels on Wednesday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Nathalie Weatherald]