Takeaways for Europe as Biden, Trump dominate Super Tuesday primaries

Incumbent US President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump swept to victory in statewide nominating contests across the country on Tuesday (5 March), setting up a historic rematch in November’s election.

Trump won the US Republican votes in a dozen states – including delegate-rich California and Texas – brushing aside former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, his sole remaining Republican rival, who no longer has a viable path to the nomination. Her only win of the night thus far came in Vermont.

In a victory speech delivered at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Florida, Trump focused on Biden’s immigration policies and called him the “worst president” in history.

Meanwhile, Biden easily won most contests on the Democratic side as he eased toward the November election and in a post-vote statement cast Trump as a threat to American democracy.

“Tonight’s results leave the American people with a clear choice: Are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us backwards into the chaos, division, and darkness that defined his term in office?” Biden said.

Both candidates’ weaknesses on display

Biden had been expected to sail through the Democratic contests, though a protest vote in Minnesota organised by activists opposed to his forceful support of Israel attracted unexpectedly strong results.

The “uncommitted” vote in Minnesota stood at nearly 20% with more than half the estimated vote counted, according to Edison polling institute, higher even than the 13% that a similar effort in Michigan drew last week.

Biden nevertheless won Minnesota and 14 other states, including a mail-in vote in Iowa that ended on Tuesday.

He did suffer one loss, in the US territory of American Samoa’s caucus, where entrepreneur Jason Palmer won 51 votes to Biden’s 40, according to the American Samoa Democratic Party.

Trump, meanwhile, is scheduled to begin his first criminal trial on 25 March in New York, where he is charged with falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to a porn star during his 2016 presidential run.

In addition to the New York case, Trump faces separate federal and Georgia state charges for election interference, though it is unclear whether either case will reach trial before the 5 November election. He also faces federal charges for retaining classified documents after leaving office.

Trump has pleaded not guilty in all four criminal cases.

At the same time, Republican voters seem to be growing more comfortable with the idea that their nominee could be convicted of a felony.

According to exit polls conducted by Edison, 23% of those who voted in the California primary believe Trump would be unfit to serve as president if convicted of a crime.

Opinion polls across the board, however, show both Biden and Trump have low approval ratings among voters.

Biden and Trump trained their focus on each other in commenting on Tuesday’s results, and this weekend both men will head to Georgia – again likely to be a critical swing state – before its presidential primaries on 12 March.

In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump in Georgia by a minuscule 0.23% – 11,779 votes – and Trump’s efforts to overturn Biden’s win there has since led to the former president being indicted in the state for election interference by the Fulton County district attorney.

What nixing Haley should mean for Europe

“For most Europeans, the difference of views on the two candidates is remarkable,” Vassilis Ntousas, head of European operations at the  German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, told Euractiv.

“This means that there is very little doubt as to how impactful this election will be not just for the US, but also for Europe,” Ntousas said.

“Despite the significance of this election, however, most European governments have adopted a public ‘wait and see’ strategy, while planning for a variety of scenarios behind closed doors,” he added.

Haley’s challenge has highlighted some of Trump’s potential general election vulnerabilities. She has reached 40% in some state contests, performing particularly well among independent, well-educated, and suburban voters, who could play a crucial role in battleground states in November.

If Trump becomes the nominee, Europe will need to face that problem and now would be the time for European leaders to prepare for that eventuality, Jonathan Katz, senior director of the Brookings Institute’s Anti-Corruption, Democracy, and Security Project, told Euractiv.

“Trump is an isolationist and is much more inclined than Haley to engage with autocrats as a default rather than engaging with key allies and partners,” Katz said.

“There’s a lot of concern that the Trump foreign policy would be disastrous both for US national security but (also) for partners globally,” he added.

Katz added Europe should expect the US to withdraw from NATO and take a stance on Ukraine that mirrors Hungary’s Viktor Orban or Slovakia’s Robert Fico, who both have been critical of sending military aid to Kyiv and displayed Putin-friendly tendencies.

“Trump clearly poses a significant risk to the type of global order and stability that partners have come to expect from the United States, particularly when we’re addressing challenges from autocrats,” Katz said.

He advised NATO members to continue shoring up their defence industries and commit to working together, even if that means working without the US.

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

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