‘It is the time to defeat Russia’

The war will likely last one year or more, and it will end with the victory of Ukraine and the liberation of all occupied territory, the question being how the war will end and how peace will be organised after Russia’s military defeat, writes Roman Rukomeda.

Roman Rukomeda is a Ukrainian political analyst. This is his 73rd account of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The 298th day of massive Russian aggression against Ukraine has ended. For almost ten months, Ukraine has been resisting and gradually liberating its territories from the biggest aggressor in Europe since WWII.

The outcome of this war will impact not only the future of Ukrainians but many other European nations. Peace and prosperity not only in Europe but all around the world rely on the punishment of the aggressor – the Russian Federation, its leadership and society, which continues to support the aggression against Ukraine.

Despite Russian plans to capture Kyiv and the main territory of Ukraine in two weeks, our military slowed down the dynamics of aggression, stretched Russian military logistics, and then counter-attacked with saved resources and people.

After receiving substantive military support from the NATO and EU countries, especially in artillery (long-ranged MLRS systems and howitzers), Ukraine managed to stop the Russian offensive and liberate territories in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Ukraine continues to control it despite desperate Russian rocket attacks and sending thousands of freshly mobilised people to the front.

Part of Ukrainians always knew about the dark nature of Russian national character, its wilderness, immoral and evil attitude to the neighbouring nations, especially Western ones that were always defined as “the enemies”. It now appears that all the efforts of the democratic countries to make Russia and its society part of western civilisation failed.

But here in Ukraine, we always knew who Russians are, as we suffered from them the most in the 20th century and now. It is a historical fact that Stalin killed more Ukrainians than Hitler. To break the will of Ukrainians’ resistance, Stalin organised three artificial famines (starvations) during 1933-1947 that killed about seven million Ukrainians, known as Holodomor.

The strength of Ukrainian society is fundamental in fighting back against Russian aggression. Most people did not run away and started to fight, which was a significant surprise for Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian rocket attacks continue on critical energy infrastructure and cause a lot of suffering. Because of them, we have been in deficit mode for the last few months when we have limited access to electricity, water and heat. We stay optimistic, but it is probably the most challenging test for our society since 1991.

However, less than 10% of Ukrainians said they would leave the country and their homes because of these issues, demonstrating incredible resilience. About 80% of small and medium businesses have adjusted to the situation and bought reserve sources of energy (different types of generators).

The prevailing feeling of most people in Ukraine is that the war will last one year or even more. I also feel that Ukraine will reach military victory over Russia closer to the end of next year with the liberation of all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea and Donbas.

An important moment will be the organisation of peace, order and restoration of international law after the war’s end. It does not necessarily mean that Russia will accept the new peace agreement. There is a chance that Russia will continue to follow the “besieged fortress” policy, disagreeing with any proposed documents or agreements. Anyhow, it is the central question now – how will the war end, and how will peace be organised after Russia’s military defeat?

I continue to be sure that the only guarantee for Ukraine’s security will be swift membership in NATO.

Nevertheless, the beginning of the following year will be full of battles, blood, more Russian aggression and Ukrainian counter-offensives. The result of the war in Ukraine will depend on the European and global political and security landscape. We are truly living in historic times, and surviving through them is also a challenge for those in Ukraine.