Will the EU use the ‘Orbán method’ again, if necessary?

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In this week’s edition: Post-EUCO wrap.

Why not make the Hungarian coffee break that saved the EU’s decision on Ukraine accession talks – let’s call it the ‘Orbán method’ – a potential model for the future?

It came as a surprise to many summit watchers when EU leaders agreed on Thursday (14 December) to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova and grant candidate status to Georgia, despite an earlier threat from Hungary to veto the deal.

It was the perfect diplomatic feat: In a pre-cooked move, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán left the room when the decision was about to be taken, knowing the other leaders would go ahead and vote on Ukraine.

As such EU summit decisions require the unanimous support of all EU27, it would not have been possible with the Hungarian leader present.

Before the summit, in the morning over breakfast, several EU leaders had met with Orbán and discussed the matter, according to EU diplomats with knowledge of the discussions.

A day before, the European Commission also unblocked €10.2 billion for Hungary, which had been withheld due to misgivings about the country’s rule of law.

A week before the summit, the Hungarian prime minister hinted in an interview he would not use his veto to block a decision on enlargement for Ukraine.

“Legally speaking, it’s not exactly a veto. Let’s say I’m not contributing to make a decision that I think is bad,” he said at the time.

On Thursday night, Orbán “was momentarily absent from the room in a pre-agreed and constructive manner,” an EU official said when dryly describing the move, known in Brussels as ‘constructive abstention’.

“If someone is absent, they are absent. Legally, it is totally valid,” the official added.

It is also a highly unusual method to approve a decision – especially such a major one – even though EU diplomats have long been very creative about how to strike deals when EU summits were deadlocked by the requirement to reach a unanimous decision between leaders.

In fact, it has never been used in such a way before by EU leaders.

EU member states have already sporadically started using this option, for example, when foreign ministers voted on the new EU training mission for the Ukrainian military.

A big chunk of EU officials and diplomats speaking to us after the summit surprise said the step can very well be seen as a breaking point for how difficult summit decisions can be unlocked in the future.

Over nearly two years, the Ukraine case has shown that the ability to make swift decisions in times of crisis will determine whether the EU keeps its role as a foreign policy actor.

In the minds of many, this week’s summit workaround might encourage the bloc to use the ‘Orbán method’ again, should it be necessary.

And, there could be another necessity soon.

EU leaders could not overcome Hungary’s resistance to revamp the EU budget providing €50 billion to Kyiv and more cash for other tasks such as managing migration.

They expressed confidence on Friday (15 December) that they would clear a large package of aid for Ukraine early in 2024, despite a veto by Hungary at this summit.

EU leaders, who would prefer a deal backed by all 27 members but also have a Plan B, are expected to revisit the issue at an emergency summit at the end of January or early in February.

French President Emmanuel Macron said the EU was “not blocked” from providing Ukraine aid next year, adding he felt Orbán had an incentive to reach a deal.

“We are working very hard to have an agreement by 27 member states,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, adding: “But I think it is now also necessary to work on potential alternatives to have an operational solution in case that an agreement by 27 – by unanimity – is not possible.”

“Most of the time, we should come to a decision together,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had actually suggested to Orbán to leave the room, told reporters. “That’s not something you should do every time.”

EU IN THE WORLD

EUCO WRAP | Beyond Ukraine and the EU budget, the bloc’s leaders failed to sharpen their position on the Israel-Hamas war and escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, despite several member states advocating for a ceasefire.

This came after EU member states earlier had been presented with possible next steps in response to the Israel-Hamas war, including a crackdown on Hamas’ finances and travel bans for Israeli settlers responsible for violence in the West Bank.

SANCTIONS DONE | Austria has lifted its blockage of a 12th package of EU sanctions on Russia after Ukraine took Raiffeisen Bank International off a blacklist, an EU diplomat confirmed to Euractiv on Saturday.

Vienna had been pushing to get the bank struck off a Ukrainian list dubbed “international sponsors of war”, which sets out to shame companies doing business in Russia.

ENLARGEMENT LATEST

GRADUAL INTEGRATION | At the EU-Western Balkans summit, leaders discussed accession and emphasised the need for significant reforms.

A gradual integration of EU candidate countries into the bloc’s structures is “not an alternative to membership” but the best way to keep enlargement on track and achieve faster results, Austria’s Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg and his counterpart from North Macedonia, Bujar Osmani, told Euractiv in a joint interview earlier in the week.

Read more with Euractiv

Serbians vote in snap election, ruling party set to secure another term

Serbians will cast their votes on Sunday (17 December) in a snap election seen as an effort by President Aleksandar Vucic and his populist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) to secure another four-year term, after two mass shootings earlier this year rattled their popularity.