Rough waters ahead in 2024 – and the EU needs to get ready

Welcome back to EURACTIV’s Global Europe Brief, your weekly update on the EU from a global perspective. You can subscribe to receive our newsletter here.

What will matter in 2024? Between two wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and a global election marathon, Brussels buckles up for a busy foreign policy agenda.

Next to half of the world heading to the polls this year, it will also be the last year before Europe gears up for the next European elections and a change in administration.

Let’s take a look into our EU foreign policy crystal ball to see what will shape the discussions over the next few months.

EU IN THE WORLD

UKRAINE OUTLOOK | With Russia’s war on Ukraine entering its third calendar year, Moscow is counting on time and weakening Western resolve, emboldened by seeing that the US and the EU are struggling to provide new funding for Kyiv despite having promised open-ended support:

What's next for Ukraine? Over to EU, and Washington

With Russia’s war on Ukraine entering its third calendar year, Moscow is counting on time and weakening Western resolve, emboldened by seeing that the US and the EU are struggling to provide new funding for Kyiv despite having promised open-ended support. 

In Brussels, EU leaders will hold a tough emergency summit on 1 February to have another go at agreeing on the bloc’s budget and a €50 billion financial aid package to Ukraine, intended to fund Ukraine’s government over the next four years after Hungary vetoed the aid package in December. EU officials now have prepared a potential compromise in exchange for Orbán dropping his veto.

Beyond securing short-term financial needs, EU diplomats seem confident cohesion on Ukraine support will hold, though they agree its degree will decisively depend on whether Ukraine can hold the frontline with Russia.

“We have to be extremely careful we don’t fall into the trap and start repeating Russian talking points on this issue, which effectively have no other goal than leading to appeasement in the long term,” one EU diplomat told us asked about what to think of the ‘Ukraine fatigue’ discussion.

At the same time, expect diplomatic efforts to pick up pace over the next few months. There are considerations to organise a Ukraine-led ‘Peace Formula’ summit early this year, people familiar with the discussions said, especially as Ukraine fears Western attention is split over the situation in the Middle East and domestic election cycles.

MIDDLE EAST | With the Israel-Hamas war radically changed the political landscape in the Middle East last year, efforts (including EU-led ones) for the normalisation process between Israel and several Arab countries have been halted.

EU LEADERSHIP| With European Council President Charles Michel’s surprise announcement, the EU’s top job race is expected to gain speed over the next few weeks.

With a potential far-right surge in the polls, pro-European forces’ will be confronted with the need to speed up negotiations over the EU’s top jobs following the elections in June, especially as the bloc’s next executive will be steering into rough international waters.

EU leaders are expected to provide guidelines for the next five years (2024-2029) with a document, dubbed ‘Strategic Agenda’, by the end of June.

US ELECTIONS | The EU will start preparing for a Trump 2.0 risk, though so far EU diplomats say it remains unclear how exactly. Should he or another Republican get elected into the White House, will we be able to ‘Trump-proof’ transatlantic relations in time? Will the United States, whoever is elected president next year, continue to provide a security umbrella for Europe?

CHINA WATCH | Taiwan’s presidential elections were this year’s starting gun for China watchers. President-elect Lai Ching-te could face a tough four years with China in office with no parliamentary majority and the ever-present threat of military action from Beijing.

The EU in a swift statement after the polls cautiously “welcomed” the results, but added it “remains concerned about growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo.” We’ve looked at what’s at stake, as Europeans mull how to navigate ties with Taipei.

Beyond, expect EU-China relations to continue to be a ‘dialogue of the deaf‘ this year, with diplomats being worried the Russia-China ‘special relationship’ might enter a new year with closer cooperation.

Expect more trouble on trade issues, after the EU announced a probe into China’s subsidies for homegrown electric vehicles (EV) and now cheap Chinese biodiesel, and Beijing launched an anti-dumping investigation into brandy imported from the bloc. China is expected to target other products while Brussels might go after green tech like wind and solar, analysts told us.

Key dates to watch:

• World Economic Forum in Davos, 15-19 January
• EU proposal for Economic Security Strategy, 24 January
• Extra-EU Summit to seal Ukraine aid, 1 February
• EU-Indo-Pacific Forum / EU-ASEAN Ministerial, 1-2 February
• WTO Ministerial in Abu Dhabi, 26-29 February
• Russian Presidential Elections, 17 March
• EU Elections, 6-9 June
• G7 Summit in Italy, 13-15 June
• 2024 Strategic Agenda, Q3/2024 
• UN General Assembly in New York / Summit for the Future, 23-29 September
• New European Commission takes office, Q4 2024
• US Presidential Elections, 5 November
• COP29 in Azerbaijan, 11-22 November
• G20 Summit in Brazil, 18-19 November

WIDER EUROPE

ENLARGEMENT PROGRESS | Almost all EU member states (minus Hungary, of course) in December said they want to see Ukraine and Moldova, as well as the Western Balkans, join the club, but this realistically will take years.

In general, EU officials have been trying to calm concerns from EU aspirant countries that while last year saw big political steps, this year will be all about the meticulous technical reform work and the question, for the next EU political cycle, whether its current rules are up to the task to admit new members.

The European Commission was expected to send negotiating teams to Kyiv and Chisinau, to draw up the framework for accession talks, right after the December decision. But, according to EU officials, things are not going as quickly as anticipated and both capitals have yet to receive a delegation on this matter.

Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia are expected to receive provisional accession dates this year, in part to mitigate growing Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Balkans.

For Serbia and Kosovo, accession prospects are expected to look increasingly grim unless they move forward on their stalling normalisation process. Do look out for small, positive steps, though.

Key dates to watch:

• EU Communication on pre-enlargement reforms and policy reviews, 27 February
• European Council on Ukraine/Moldova update, 21-22 March
• 20th Anniversary of ‘Big Bang’ Enlargement, 29 April
• OSCE Spring and Annual Sessions, 23-26 May + 29-30 June
• EU-Ukraine Summit, Q1/2 2024
• Annual EU Enlargement Package, Q3/4 2024
• EU-Western Balkans Summit, Q3/4 2024

DEFENCE CORNER

MAKE-OR-BREAK? | With the Ukraine war entering its third year, a deepening Middle East crisis and half the world’s population heading to polls this year, European defence policy faces a fight for a place on top of 2024’s agenda:

2024: A make-or-break year for European defence?

With war fatigue threatening and half the world’s population heading to polls this year, European defence faces a fight for a place on top of 2024’s agenda.

DEFENCE INVESTMENTS | The EU is looking to fund arms factories’ production and new manufacturing lines before they even got government contracts in a bid to de-risk investments and boost output with a €100 billion fund.

“We need to be able to increase our capacity without perhaps having orders in place beforehand. We are ready to review their business model with them, including upfront investment to take a risk together to increase the industrial base’s capacity,” Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton told a group of international media, including Euractiv, this week.

The scheme would build on the method it used to boost ammunition production across the bloc with the EU’s Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP).

The European Commission and EU member states are also expected to look into their long-term plans for defence capabilities. Next-generation air forces were put on top of the innovation agenda, backed by the European Defence Fund (EDF) with cargo planes and helicopters, Euractiv reported, after seeing exclusive draft documents.

NATO TOP JOB RACE | By the time of its 75th-anniversary summit in Washington in July, the Western military alliance is expected to make a pick for its next boss.

With less than seven months to go, former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte has become a frontrunner in the race to succeed outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. However, the informal selection criteria have once again shone a light on the complexity of the process.

“Rest assured, this time we need to make our pick, but this will be also done with the thought of the need to select a person that possibly will be able to push back against a potentially rogue Republican president across the Atlantic,” one NATO diplomat quipped when asked about the progress in the top job discussions.

Key dates to watch:

• Informal EU Defence Ministerial, 30-31 January
• Munich Security Conference, 16-18 February
• European Defence Industrial Strategy, 27 February
• European Defence Investment Programme (EDIP), 27 February
• NATO enlargement celebration, 4 April
• European Space Summit, 22-23 May
• Informal NATO Foreign Ministerial, 29-30 May TBC
• NATO Washington Summit, 9-11 July  

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