Europe’s doom and gloom before Munich

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It seems like the end of peaceful times as we know them — and Europe feels nervous.

Over the past few weeks, European countries’ military brass have increasingly warned they believe Russia could try to undermine NATO in the coming decade.

Their words resonate more than usual because many of those European military officials are usually known for their discretion and lack of alarmism.

Denmark‘s defence chief Troels Lund Poulsen has become the latest and starkest warning in a series about Russia’s appetite for confrontation beyond its war in Ukraine.

“It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity. That was not NATO’s assessment in 2023. This is new information that is coming to the fore now,” Poulsen told Jyllands-Posten.

His comments follow those of many others.

In neighbouring Sweden, which, after more than two centuries of peace, is a few steps from joining NATO pending a green light from Hungary, a heated political debate erupted after the country’s two top defence officials warned that war could be on the horizon.

Norway‘s top defence official Eirik Kristoffersen said that NATO countries have “two, maybe three” years to prepare for an assault by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces.

Meanwhile, Estonia has taken over Baltic nations and is preparing a 600-strong bunker defensive line with the Russian threat in mind. Latvia has reintroduced mandatory military service legislation, while Lithuania is debating universal conscription.

The UK‘s army chief said the country should take steps to place society on war footing and train a “citizen army”, though the Ministry of Defence clarified it has no plans for conscription.

In a rare public warning, Germany‘s defence minister warned Putin could attack NATO in less than a decade.

“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day (…), so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,” Pistorius told German outlet Der Tagesspiegel.

While a Russian attack is not likely “for now,” the minister added: “Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible.”

Meanwhile, Belgium‘s chief of defence Michel Hofman highlighted concerns about a potential Russian threat to Moldova and the Baltic States.

“We see that Russia has switched to a war industry,” Hofman said. “I think we should rightly be concerned. The language of the Kremlin and of President Vladimir Putin is always ambiguous. It is absolutely possible that they will have other ideas later. Either in the south in Moldova or the Baltic States.”

The warnings are driven in part by Russia’s plans to put defence and ammunition production on a war footing – something Western countries have struggled to accomplish in their efforts to support Ukraine’s defence capacity against Russia’s invasion.

Russia’s military spending in 2024 will increase to 7.1% of its GDP and will account for 35% of total government spending, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

What’s needed in the West, in addition to ramped-up production, is a shift in mindset, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s Military Council, recently said in what was seen as his starkest warning since taking office.

“I think more people need to understand it’s not just something of the armed forces and money. We need to be readier across the whole spectrum,” Bauer warned.

In other words, if you want peace, prepare for war.

While Europe’s military definitely seems alert, a large part of politics is more cautious, but this might change next weekend.

Ahead of the world’s biggest security gathering, the head of the Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, said he believes a Russian attack on NATO territory cannot be ruled out if Ukraine loses the war.

“Putin has said several times that the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century was the collapse of the Soviet Union because it left many Russians stranded outside Russia’s borders,” Heusgen told the Rheinische Post.

It was in Munich, in February 2007, that Putin broke with the West – and the West didn’t notice.

He railed against the post-Cold War international order and suggested that Russia prepared to challenge it.

Although Putin’s speech surprised the plenary session, it was quickly forgotten or relativised. If the message wasn’t entirely clear to all then – it sure is now.

Just one and a half years later, Russian tanks rolled through Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions.

Seven years later, the Kremlin militarily occupied Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula and eastern Ukraine. And then came 2022, a full-scale invasion of Ukraine that took Europe ‘by surprise’, despite Eastern Europeans sounding the alarm for years.

When Europe’s security top brass descends on Munich next weekend, they will have something to discuss.

DEFENCE BRIEFING

DAVOS OF DEFENCE | The annual Munich Security Conference, dubbed by some the ‘Davos of defence’ will be held in the Bavarian capital next weekend (16-18 February) and bring together top political, defence, tech and security stakeholders to discuss the world’s current security challenges.

• Hot topics?

While no official agenda is out yet, the two major wars at Europe’s doorstep – Ukraine and Gaza – are likely to dominate the discussions, next to the defence of NATO’s eastern flank, Middle East peace efforts, South-China Sea security and strategies for the eventuality of former US President Donald Trump’s re-election.

• Who’s coming – and who is not?

Organizers expected roughly 50 heads of state and government and 100 ministers from all over the world, as well as representatives of international organisations such as the United Nations, the EU and NATO.

The high-level A-list of European leaders includes German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Though not confirmed, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend in person to shore up further Western support.

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog will be one of the guests, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu potentially making an appearance, though for security reasons, the Israeli government traditionally only makes a final commitment shortly before an event.

Expected is also the attendance of high-ranking Chinese officials. Last year top diplomat Wang Yi attended the event.

Russia and Iran have been excluded from this year’s guest list, though organisers made sure to invite Iranian and Russian non-governmental organisations.

DEFENCE EXPLAINER | The EU’s defence programmes and funds have multiplied after Russia launched its war in Ukraine to boost collaboration in different steps of an equipment’s life cycle. We’ve got an overview for you here.

EU IN THE WORLD

RUSSIA SANCTIONS | The EU is expected to hit more Russian military and tech firms, including firms shipping ammunition from North Korea, as part of a new package of measures to mark two years since Russia invaded Ukraine.

On a different sanctions note, the European Commission this week dismissed reports that it was considering sanctioning US right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson over his controversial interview with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

CETA REVIVAL | The European Commission and Canada have agreed on the “interpretation” of parts of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) that relate to investor protection from environmental regulation, in a renewed push by Brussels to persuade member states to ratify the bilateral multibillion-euro deal.

MAURITANIA MIGRATION | The EU will help Mauritania curb the number of migrants passing through the country en route to Spain’s Canary Islands, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced during a visit to the West African country this week.

WIDER EUROPE

TURKEY EARTHQUAKE | Turkey’s government is scrambling to prove it has fulfilled promises to re-home victims of a devastating earthquake from February 2023. But a year on, survivors are still in temporary housing, facing the prospect of having to buy their potential new homes.

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