West’s Aid to Ukraine: Too Little, Too Late?

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Ukraine and its European allies breathed a sigh of relief when the US House of Representatives approved the long-delayed $60 billion in military aid to Kyiv in a rare show of bipartisan unity. But the euphoria could be short-lived amid the struggle to provide substantial support in time.

The proposed bill is set to allocate $60.8 billion to Ukraine, with over $23 billion earmarked for restocking weaponry and supplies sourced from the US, $13.8 billion foreseen for advanced weapons systems and $10 billion in economic aid.

The legislation, if approved by the US Senate as widely expected, could be signed into law by US President Biden as soon as Tuesday next week.

“Thank you, America!” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said,  adding the ‘vital’ US aid bill “will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger.”

“This sends a clear message to the Kremlin: Those who believe in freedom and the UN charter will continue to support Ukraine and its people,” said European Council President Charles Michel.

“Ukraine is using the weapons provided by NATO allies to destroy Russian combat capabilities. This makes us all safer, in Europe and North America,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, welcoming the US military aid package.

But the euphoric response on this side of the Atlantic won’t be able to disperse thoughts that the West is doing ‘too little too late’ to prepare Ukraine, for what is most likely coming as Russia is expected to go in a fierce offensive in the coming months, if not weeks.

Military officials acknowledge in private that considering Ukraine’s currently dire battlefield situation and the creeping advances Russia’s forces have made over recent months, the new aid might not be able to radically change Kyiv’s prospects.

It can at best help Ukraine counter Russia’s continuous assaults and maintain control of territory, they believe.

Some experts also believe Russia could now be pushed to carry out attacks, it might otherwise have waited to launch before more Western aid reaches Ukraine’s battlefields.

But severe ammunition and air defence shortages, coupled with an increasing lack of manpower, will require more resources and time to overcome.

“The decision of the US Congress to finally pass its Ukraine support bill comes late, very late – but not too late,” Steven Everts, director at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), told Euractiv.

“Now EU member states need to do their part by delivering the air defence systems that Ukraine so badly needs – these systems do exist in Europe,” Everts said.

“Russia is a threat as much as to Ukraine as us. So there should be no excuses – it’s decision time,” he added.

“Hope this vote encourages all allies to look through their warehouses and do more,” said Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas.

In an extraordinary NATO-Ukraine Council this Friday (19 April), called by Zelenskyy in response to Russia’s intensifying missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, NATO countries confirmed they have more air defence systems that can be dispatched to Ukraine.

“NATO has mapped out existing capabilities across the lines and there are systems that can be made available to Ukraine,” said Stoltenberg, adding he would expect concrete announcements “in the near future.”

Although the preference would be largely more primarily Patriot systems, “there are other weapons that allies can provide, including SAMP/Ts [surface-to-air missiles],” Stoltenberg also said that “many allies who do not have available systems have pledged to provide financial support to purchase them for Ukraine.”

“Now is also the time to remember that the EU now has to increase our own production of armaments, ammunition and supplies to aid Ukraine on a long-term basis,” said Sweden’s Foreign Minister Tobias Billström.

EU foreign and defence ministers, meeting in a rare joint session in Luxembourg, are expected to yet again discuss further military aid to Kyiv.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov are expected to join the talks via video link.

“This won’t be an easy session,” one EU official, asked about the expectation for Monday’s talks, said.

“It might not be obvious to everyone – and some might simply not want to see the reality quite yet – but there is an increasing feeling, that we’ve been doing too little, too late,” they added.

DEFENCE BRIEFING

LOCATING SHELLS | Where does the EU stand on its ammunition pledge to Ukraine? One year on after the bloc’s member states promised to send Ukraine one million rounds of ammunition within 12 months, only half have been delivered.

AIR DEFENCE | Following in Germany’s footsteps, Denmark, Czechia, and the Netherlands look to find air defence for Ukraine, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called on Kyiv’s allies to dig deeper into their stockpiles to support Ukraine militarily.

COMMON DEFENCE | The EU’s defence market must be more integrated, create champions, get access to cash and give the European Commission overseeing powers, according to former Italian prime minister Enrico Letta, going fiercely against member states’ protectorship.

WIDER EUROPE

ENLARGEMENT FUND | With some EU member states and sectors likely to be exposed more than others by the EU’s future enlargement rounds, a new fund could be needed to compensate for imbalances.

BACK ONLINE | The outlet Voice of Europe, allegedly involved in a pro-Russian propaganda network, has restarted operations based in Kazakhstan after it was ousted from the Czech Republic last month, Euractiv’s data shows.

EU IN THE WORLD

LEBANON FOCUS | Following Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel, EU leaders and diplomats are increasingly looking at how a major escalation in the Middle East conflict can be prevented, including by focusing on neighbouring countries.

Fearing new migration waves toward Europe, EU leaders this week are looking at ways to support Lebanon with an economic aid package expected to be delivered by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the coming days.

WHAT ELSE WE’RE READING 

• Fear and Hoarding on Ukraine’s Eastern Front [Foreign Policy]
• The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine [Foreign Affairs]

ON OUR RADAR NEXT WEEK

• EU Foreign and Defence Ministers meet to talk Ukraine, Middle East, Sudan
  | Monday, 22 April 2024 | Luxembourg
• EU-Gulf Cooperation Council High-Level Forum on Regional Security and Cooperation
  | Monday, 22 April 2024 | Luxembourg
  
• Final European Parliament plenary session of the term, with debates on Gaza, Russian frozen assets and Georgia
  | Mo-Thu, 22-25 April 2024 | Strasbourg, France
• European Affairs Ministers meet informally to discuss enlargement and future EU
  | Mo-Tue, 29-30 April 2024 | Brussels, Belgium
  

PREVIOUS EDITIONS

[Edited by Rajnish Singh]

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