Recalibrating Europe’s India relations after another Modi victory

With Narendra Modi on his way to a third consecutive term as prime minister of India and the reshuffling of the European Parliament after the June elections, 2024 looks set to be a year for recalibrating EU-India relations.

The European Union and India marked 60 years of bilateral relations in 2022. Despite the partnership gaining momentum under Modi’s leadership, EU-India dynamics have yet to reach their full potential.

So far, the rapprochement has focused mainly on reaching a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), but both sides continue to feel the pressure of security challenges, prompting the EU to consider broadening relations with India in the context of strategic partnerships

Although there have been talks since June 2022, a potential agreement is on hold as both sides set their sights on their elections. But this has not stopped trade advances. Just last year, the EU overtook the United States and became India’s largest trading partner, a clear indication of an opportunity for deeper strategic exploration.

This is one of the main reasons experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) argue there is a need for rebooting relations, with the countries’ respective elections providing a perfect opportunity to reengage.

A report from the Jacques Delors Institute argues the same. According to experts at the Paris-based think tank, the decade ahead offers a unique opportunity for the EU and India to deepen their partnership.

China, a shared concern

Both the EU and India navigate are navigating choppy waters in their respective relations with China, but they also share common ground for concern.

Experts at the Geopolitical Monitor describe India-China ties as unique in nature. While Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping may have demonstrated political workmanship, they both lead countries with over a billion people, which pits them as geopolitical rivals and gives them the ability to influence global affairs, for better or worse.

There is strong competition in the economic realm as well. India’s $3.5 trillion economy is still small when compared to China’s nearly $18 trillion economy, but analysts predict New Delhi could overtake Beijing as the world’s growth engine as early as 2028.

China’s ‘miracle’ expansion phase is no longer that, and Modi (as well as Western governments) have noticed, encouraging Modi to woo businesses to diversify supply chains outside of China.

The Indian stock market is booming, foreign investment is arriving in sizable amounts and more governments are interested in signing trade deals.

While Europeans often tread on thin ice with China – as the recent visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Beijing highlighted – they are keen on making the Asian country play by their rules when it comes to fair trade.

In this sense, the EU and India can further explore ways and join forces, while also brainstorming on how to address deepening Beijing-Moscow ties, which are not favoured by either party.

No ‘minced’ foreign policy

Unlike previous elections, foreign policy has become part of the campaign rhetoric in India. 19% of 35,000 respondents participating in a poll by the India Today group published earlier this year, credit Modi with raising the country’s global stature as his second-best achievement.

While analysts say the country has never been hesitant with its foreign policy, the past 10 years under Modi’s leadership have marked a visible change in style or rhetoric rather than substance.

Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s influential foreign minister, is the person in charge of voicing New Delhi’s recent assertiveness on the global stage. “He minces no words,” Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) national executive member Vinay Sahasrabuddhe told Reuters in an interview.

A report from Brussels-based think tank EGMONT points out the expected continuity of assertive foreign and security policy in New Delhi, with the result of the elections not being a surprise.

Experts say there is room in these domains for both sides to foster a real partnership. For the EU, it is a geopolitical imperative to strengthen relations with India and play a stronger defence and security role, highlighted especially by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

[By Xhoi Zajmi I Edited by Brian Maguire | Euractiv’s Advocacy Lab ]

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