The Brief – Imagine there’s no enlargement

Twenty years ago, on a sunny Saturday on 1 May 2004, three former Soviet Republics, three former Soviet satellite countries (one of them having split in two), one former Yugoslav republic, and two former British colonies joined the EU.

It was called the ‘Big Bang enlargement’, and indeed, in the history of what is today the EU, its fifth wave (of which Bulgaria and Romania, which joined on 1 January 2007, are officially part) is by far the biggest and, therefore, historic.

At that time, the diplomats from Eastern Europe knew relatively little about the European Communities to which they were accredited, while their European counterparts had limited knowledge and understanding of our countries.

On our side, we had doubts as to the readiness of the Communities to enlarge. I must confess that I also doubted my country’s willingness to become part of mainstream Europe.

At the time, we were preparing the accession application, and the prime minister was Jean Videnov, a staunch communist of the type that used to rule Bulgaria when it was a satellite of the USSR. Did Videnov want Bulgaria to become part of the West? I had my doubts…

But the miracle happened: He signed the application, and less than 10 years later, the fifth enlargement became a fact.

Today, we know that the fifth enlargement has been a big success overall. But I can’t help thinking about what it would have been like if EU enlargement hadn’t happened.

As for Bulgaria, the country I know best, I’m sure it would have become a Russian colony.

The South Stream gas pipeline (which Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso stopped) would have been built and would supply huge amounts of gas to a large part of Europe. Via Bulgaria, Russian influence would be consolidated in North Macedonia, Greece, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro.

No need to mention Hungary because, under Viktor Orban, this country already acts as a member of the Eurasian Union and not the EU.

Without EU enlargement, Hungary,  Slovakia, and Bulgaria would probably be official members of the Eurasian Economic Union, of the Community of Independent States, and of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation.

All countries of the Fifth Enlargement went on to become NATO members before they joined the EU. Joining NATO, which is a little less demanding, is not a precondition for joining the EU, but it helps.

2004 was the year of the EU enlargement with Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, and Cyprus.

But in the same year, NATO also saw its biggest expansion, with Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joining together on 29 March 2004. (Czechia, Hungary, and Poland had already joined in 1999.)

The two processes are largely related.

Without EU and NATO membership, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the three former Soviet republics, would have been taken over by puppet governments, which would have then requested reunification with Russia.

A “de-Nazification” would have followed, masses of populations would have been moved, essentially amounting to ethnic cleansing, and nothing could have been done to stop it.

In the remaining countries, Moscow-friendly governments would be put in place.

Cyprus would probably become the first Mediterranean country to ask for accession to the Eurasian Union, soon followed by Malta. The Russian fleet would set up bases in Valletta and Limassol, gaining a firm foothold in the Mediterranean.

And it goes without saying that Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia would never dare to voice ambitions to become closer to the West, which would remain distant and unreachable anyway.

Our countries would be close to dictatorships, our economies would be made to serve Russia’s interest and living standards would be close to what they were 40 years ago.

Western culture would be censored, although films starring Vladimir Putin’s buddies Gérard Depardieu and Steven Seagal would be exempted, and we would speak Russian as lingua franca and celebrate all Russian official holidays.

It’s as simple as that. Without EU enlargement, today’s Europe would have an ugly face. I know it, I have experienced both worlds.

Now, nine other countries are knocking on the EU’s doors: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Albania, Moldova, Georgia and, of course, Ukraine.

All of them have their problems. To be fair, the countries of the Fifth enlargement also had serious problems but Brussels made the right decisions.

Will history be fair to the new applicants? I only wish they were given the same chance that we had.

The Roundup

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Thursday (2 May) €1 billion in financial aid to Lebanon, disbursed over three years, to support the country’s economy and address the challenges posed by refugees and migration.

In a meeting of EU agriculture and fisheries ministers, member states supported the demand from Latvia and Lithuania to loosen some requirements of the fishing control rules, which only entered into force on 9 January.

The EU called Georgia to ‘stay on the European course’ and cease spiralling violence in the country’s capital after security forces used water cannons, teargas, stun grenades and rubber bullets on Wednesday to disperse pro-EU demonstrators opposed to a Russian-style ‘foreign agents’ law.

To stay on top of EU politics and election news, don’t miss this week’s EU Politics Decoded: Southern liberals on edge.

Look out for…

• Commissioner Elisa Ferreira meets with Hungary’s EU Affairs Minister János Bóka in Budapest on Friday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]