Why the next European Commission’s enlargement portfolio could be its most wanted

In the next European Commission mandate, the enlargement and neighbourhood file is expected to be one of the most prized possessions when it comes to distributing EU top jobs between member states.

The portfolio includes strengthening relations with the EU’s neighbours, providing a credible EU accession perspective, and supporting reforms in the EU’s nine candidate countries.

Russia’s war in Ukraine and shifts in the EU’s geopolitical landscape have led to the realisation that the bloc’s strategic interest in a stable and secure near-neighbourhood must go beyond who will be the next member.

Earlier this year, top EU officials said the current situation meant it was necessary to speed up procedures, which the previous Juncker Commission essentially halted, resulting in almost a decade of stagnation.

A growing portfolio

Over the past two years, EU member states have greenlighted Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina to proceed to the next steps in their respective paths, requiring significant technical and legal work on both sides.

“Let’s face it, the key task for that file in the next term will be ‘to get Ukraine done’ and keep others reforming, which will be a monumental task,” one EU diplomat told Euractiv on the condition of anonymity, a position echoed by many others.

As part of the push, the European Commission’s internal Support Group for Ukraine has recently become a whole new directorate focused on reconstruction and accession.

Funding for the region has also been increased, including the new ‘Growth Plan’ for the Western Balkans, which includes an extra €6 billion in conditional funding.

The European Commission’s Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR), which manages most of the bloc’s growing financial and technical assistance to the enlargement and neighbourhood countries, has also increased its activities.

The ‘neighbourhood’ part of the portfolio has gained importance as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has pushed to conclude migration agreements, dubbed strategic partnerships, with several southern neighbourhood countries.

Vying for the job

Several EU member states including Austria, Sweden, and Greece—have been eying the file for their candidate, according to Euractiv’s commissioner tracker.

Hungary, meanwhile, wants to keep the enlargement job with incumbent Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi to keep influence over steering Ukraine’s and the Western Balkans’ accession talks.

However, several EU member states have expressed reservations about Várhelyi or another Hungarian commissioner, especially after Prime Minister Viktor Orbán attempted to block aid to Ukraine and threatened to delay its accession talks.

According to EU officials, it would also be unusual for a country to keep the same portfolio twice.

What could a portfolio upgrade look like?

Seven EU diplomats, officials and national government officials told Euractiv they expect the portfolio to be front and centre in the next EU executive’s term, with most expecting the file to be upgraded.

“It would make sense to upgrade the portfolio to a vice-president post, considering how much coordination needs to be done with other commissioner’s files,” one EU official said.

This is especially true considering the file is expected to significantly impact a range of policy areas, including agriculture and cohesion, as well as the EU’s overall budget and reform discussions.

“Beyond the discussion about the political reasoning behind enlargement, it would make sense to create a task force in the new Commission to synchronise across policy areas,” a second EU official told Euractiv.

At the same time, several EU officials and diplomats have recently expressed concerns that the portfolio is too thinly spread across a too large geographical scope.

A solution could be a directorate general with a narrower geographic mandate, splitting the mandate between EU candidate countries likely to join the bloc in the future and those considered ‘near neighbourhood’, such as those in North Africa and the Middle East.

“A commissioner that has to constantly divide his or her time between completely different regions will not be able to give the in-depth attention needed for the demanding political and reform agenda,” a second EU diplomat told Euractiv.

“It might be best if there is a serious consideration to restructure the file in the future – focus on the EU accession countries and immediate neighbours, leave the migration deals with the Southern neighbourhood to someone else,” a third EU diplomat said.

The EU’s enlargement policy is also expected to be closely tied to future reform discussions and how to make the bloc workable for a future EU36+ format, giving it a political dimension it did not have previously.

In June, EU leaders are expected to acknowledge the importance of enlargement and the need for internal reforms to run in parallel when they decide on the bloc’s so-called Strategic Agenda for the next term, according to an internal document on the consultations, seen by Euractiv.

Don’t politicise

The same EU diplomats stressed that the main concern, depending on the choice of country and designated candidate, would be the politicisation of the file.

In this context, Sweden has been named by EU diplomats as a potential honest broker due to its track record as a co-creator of the Eastern Partnership and work done during the country’s stint at the EU presidency last year in guiding enlargement-related files.

A Central or Eastern European country could also provide valuable insight based on their own experience of EU accession.

However, some EU diplomats expressed concern that countries with neighbourly disputes – such as Greece with Albania and North Macedonia – or an overtly political agenda towards one or more EU candidate countries – such as Austria’s push for Bosnia and Herzegovina or Poland’s disputes with Ukraine – could negatively influence the file.

“We all want a reasonable country in charge, one that would not put national interest overtly over the work that has to be done on a technical level in good faith,” a fourth EU diplomat said.

“If you put a clown there that doesn’t understand the technical side of things and the sensitivities of both the EU candidate countries and the member states, then we have a problem,” they said.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]

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