Kazakhstan: Reform under darkening skies

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put Kazakhstan in an extremely difficult position when it comes to advancing its reforms, but President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chose to continue – and deepen – the country’s modernisation, writes Svante E. Cornell.

Svante E. Cornell is the director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington DC and co-founder of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm.

When he came to power in 2019, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made reforming the country the centrepiece of his presidency. The environment has been less than welcoming, however.

Externally, Russia’s war in Ukraine has added significant risks to Kazakhstan both in the security sphere and in economic terms. Internally, Tokayev has been confronted with resistance to his agenda by influential elements within his own government.

What, then, is the outlook for Kazakhstan going forward?

President Tokayev launched his first major reform package at the end of 2019, followed by several additional packages.

In several extensive addresses to the nation, Tokayev spoke in frank and relatively scathing language about many of the problems plaguing Kazakhstan, which hold the country back from progressing more rapidly toward its stated aim of joining the world’s most developed nations in the next few decades.

Tokayev initiated numerous political, economic and social reforms to transform the relationship between citizens and state. These reforms aim at undoing the Soviet-era dominance of state over society, and change the nature of the state institutions into one guided by a notion of service to the population. Tokayev summed up his intention in the notion of a “listening state.”

The aim of these reforms should not be misunderstood. They are not intended to trigger immediate democratisation or a rapid liberalisation of the political system. Kazakhstan’s leaders remain skeptical of uncontrolled liberalisation, fearing the security risks that it could entail for a country bordering Russia and China. Rather, the reforms aim to gradually modernise the country in a controlled fashion, first and foremost by ensuring more efficient and transparent government – something that will, inevitably, generate conditions for evolutionary political change over time.

Even that, however, was too much for elements of the “old guard” in Kazakhstan’s politics, as these changes threatened their informal power in the country. When public protests broke out over economic issues in January 2022, these elements hijacked the protests and made a bid to create havoc in the country’s largest city, Almaty, in order to undermine and possibly depose Tokayev.

Soon after, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put Kazakhstan in an extremely difficult position. Moscow’s rhetoric against Astana escalated when Kazakh leaders refused to toe the Russian line on the war. Soon enough, Moscow began interrupting Kazakhstan’s oil exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk on clearly made-up grounds. Russian state media began making veiled threats against northern Kazakhstan.

The easy solution against this background would have been to put reforms on hold. But the demands of Kazakh society – and by extension the stability of the government – required that President Tokayev persevere with the reform course.

In March 2022, he announced deepening political reforms that would strengthen the role of parliament and courts as well as expand political participation, particularly at the local level.

One key facet has been the creation of a constitutional court, to which all citizens can appeal. Several of the justices appointed to the court break the traditional mold, having spent their careers in civil society instead of state institutions. It looks plausible at this point that the court could become a vehicle for the advancement of reforms.

Another key element is the introduction of elections for the posts of rural mayors. While these had traditionally been appointed, and served as the extension of the executive power in the provinces, the government has phased in a gradual transition to the election of these mayors.

While most of the elected mayors have been ruling party representatives, the reform is sure to provide greater accountability to voters rather than simply to higher-ups in the system. In September, Tokayev announced this reform would expand to larger districts and cities.

On the national level, recent parliamentary elections saw the broadening of political parties represented in parliament, as a half-dozen parties gained representation. All of these can be classified as “loyal” opposition, however, but they may serve to make parliament a more important locus for debate on government policy. In its report, the OSCE acknowledged that the election saw greater competitiveness and provide voters with greater choice.

A final major effort that deserves mention is the government’s effort to recover assets stolen by officials in earlier administrations and transferred abroad. Kazakhstan has partnered with major international organisations to recover some of the over $100 billion that are estimated to have been stashed abroad, and set up a special fund to use recovered assets for school construction and other social spending.

In sum, President Tokayev has placed a bet on meeting the growing demand for change and socio-economic development in society by a combination of efforts. These include shifting the logic of state institutions, carefully opening up for political voice in a controlled way, recovering stolen assets, and expanding state spending on socio-economic investments. Taken together, the government’s objective is to provide sufficient investment in the future and sufficient change to the current state institutions to ensure the strengthening of the government’s legitimacy.

All the while, the objective is to drive such change while retaining overall control over the political system and avoid the type of unrest that has affected countries in the region and opened up for nefarious foreign actors to undermine the stability of these countries. Only time will tell whether this bet placed by President Tokayev will succeed.