We must say no to China’s salami-slice style of unilateral change to Taiwan’s ‘status quo’

In Europe and around the world, opposition to China’s unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait has become a general consensus. It is a critical element in maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, writes Roy Lee.

Roy Lee is Taiwan’s representative to the EU and Belgium.

Unfortunately, China is encroaching on this consensus on a daily basis through a “salami slicing” tactic.

The latest example of this was China’s unilateral announcement in late January, two weeks after Taiwan’s presidential election, that it would activate the north-south commercial air route coded M503 from 1 February, as well as the two east-west connecting routes, W122 and W123, under the pretext of easing air traffic congestion.

On the surface, the activation seems to be a simple change in regulation for better civil aviation management.

However, a large part of the M503 route overlaps almost directly with the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which has been considered as a key status quo in maintaining peace between the two sides.

Similarly, the two connecting routes are extremely close to the territorial airspace of Kinmen and Matsu, two islands controlled by Taiwan. China had previously announced plans to activate these routes in 2015 but agreed to shift the M503 route 6 nautical miles away from the median line and not to activate the two connecting routes after Taiwan’s strong protest and negotiation.

Currently, the air traffic volume of the relevant routes is still lower than the pre-Covid-19 pandemic level, suggesting that there is no acute congestion issue to be addressed unilaterally.

As such, the activation of the M503 route has to be understood as a unilateral change to the status quo, and as an intimidation to Taiwan’s security.

First, the activation effectively terminated the negotiated outcome in 2015. Second, and more importantly, the overlapping of the M503 route with the median line of the Taiwan Strait is an act to deny the existence of the median line under a regulatory disguise.

In short, the activation quietly and substantively altered the status quo.

China has provided evidence to demonstrate the status quo-changing nature; In support of the activation, China argues that the median line never existed and that there are no so-called borders between Taiwan and China.

China has justified the lack of prior consultation on the grounds that Taiwan is not a member of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Putting together, it is not just a change of the status quo; it is also an attempt to create a fait accompli in China’s favour.

The activation has profound consequences in terms of Taiwan’s security. Should China use its civilian aircraft to mask its military aircraft, the lead time for Taiwan’s air defence system is significantly undermined because of the routes’ close proximity to Taiwan’s territorial airspace.

Taking the timing of the activation into account, it is also an explicit act to intimidate Taiwan’s incoming government that will take office in May.

Europe and the international community must be alerted that “unilateral changes to the status quo” are not a future threat, nor is a scenario that can take place only in military form.

It is a risk that is already taking place every day, and right under our noses.

To deter this, the first step is to recognize that China’s “salami-slicing” tactics in changing the status quo unilaterally are a clear and present danger to the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, and it has to be stopped.

The current case also demonstrates the substantive necessity to support Taiwan to participate meaningfully in ICAO and other international organizations.