The Brief – NATO’s (other) gap to fill

The war in Ukraine has brought back awareness that NATO’s Achilles heel in Europe is Poland’s Suwałki corridor, which cuts across the only link between Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus. However, from a security point of view, there is another strategic gap to fill.

Ironically, Vladimir Putin has achieved precisely the opposite of his likely geopolitical intention: driving non-aligned countries closer to NATO.

A poll last month by Finnish broadcaster YLE showed that, for the first time, more than 50% of Finns support joining the Western military alliance.

It is a similar story in Sweden, where a recent poll showed that those in favour of NATO membership outnumber those against it.

Earlier this week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance was ready to welcome both into its ranks quickly and with open arms, should they apply.

As enhanced alliance partners, both have been already been benefitting from an intensified exchange of NATO intelligence and strategic communication in matters related to Russia’s war in Ukraine and invited to participate in several emergency meetings.

“If they decide to apply, I expect that all allies will welcome them,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels as NATO foreign ministers met to discuss the war in Ukraine.

“We know that they can easily join this alliance if they decide to apply,” he added.

And who would blame them?

Russia has already warned both non-NATO countries that should they decide to take such a step, this would constitute a ‘red line’.

Furthermore, the Kremlin has also taken a not-so-subtle approach to the region by weaponising refugees a few years ago or breaching the sea and airspace of some Nordic states, including jamming GPS and telecommunications systems.

As if to prove the point, just a day after NATO reiterated its open arms gesture, and just as Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy was addressing Finland’s parliament, a Russian plane reportedly violated Finnish airspace while the government and bank websites were hit by a cyberattack.

Of course, candidate status does not automatically guarantee that membership would come, or that it would be a very rapid and instantaneous process. And what’s more, NATO’s Article 5 only offers protection once the accession process is complete.

“I expect that we will find ways to address any concerns they may have about that interim period between when they applied and when the last ratification took place,” Stoltenberg said, without specifying what options this could entail.

But for NATO, beyond security guarantees for the two potential new members, it is also about closing a strategic gap that might cause headaches in the future.

For years now, Arctic actors have struggled with a geopolitical paradox: Keeping the region a “low tension” area while facing increasing militarisation, which, according to most Western stakeholders, are not mutually exclusive states.

But as the Arctic ice melts due to climate change, opening up new (trade) routes and resources, and with Russian tensions at highs not seen since the Cold War, the region’s strategic importance is rapidly growing.

A failure by NATO to keep a robust Arctic presence could leave the region vulnerable as Russia reclaims old Soviet bases and uses the High North as a testing ground for new weapons systems.

In that sense, Sweden, and especially Finland as an Arctic actor, represent a key bottleneck.

The Roundup

MEPs have overwhelmingly voted in favour of a resolution to provide more protection for Ukrainian refugee children who have fled the country but now face risks of human trafficking and abuse.

The war in Ukraine has reignited the “food vs fuel” argument surrounding crop-based biofuels, with allegations that the EU’s demand for ethanol and biodiesel exacerbates food security concerns. The biofuels industry has branded the claims “ridiculous”.

Turkey’s leaders have recently increased talk about their will to return to the negotiating table with Brussels. But what has prompted this new momentum? EURACTIV Slovakia spoke to Faruk Kaymakcı, Turkey’s deputy minister of foreign affairs and director for EU affairs.

The Vatican City’s multilateral approach to foreign policy has ended with the war in Ukraine as Pope Francis takes an increasingly anti-Putin stance, Vatican expert Piero Schiavazzi told EURACTIV.

Turkey’s leaders have recently increased talk about their will to return to the negotiating table with Brussels. But what has prompted this new momentum? EURACTIV Slovakia spoke to Faruk Kaymakcı, Turkey’s deputy minister of foreign affairs and director for EU affairs.

In other news, lawmakers and stakeholders close to the agriculture community accused the EU executive of being disconnected from reality and creating additional bureaucracy after presenting new rules to curb pollution in the industrial sector.

Meanwhile, the EU executive is open to looking in detail into member states’ call for more flexibility in the rural development spending to help European farmers hit by the Ukraine war, which has put further pressure on the agriculture sector.

Representatives of the largest agricultural organisations of the four Visegrad Group states and five other countries have jointly called for a temporary postponement of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform, as well as of other environmental measures.

Google’s plan to include a “reject all” button on cookie banners after its existing policy violated EU law was welcomed by Hamburg’s top data protection official, who presented his activity report on Thursday (7 April). EURACTIV Germany reports.

The Hungarian finance ministry sought to reassure investors on Friday that the European Commission’s move to launch a disciplinary procedure that could freeze funding for the country because of its perceived rule of law deficiencies would not result in Budapest losing out on EU money.

French right-wing candidate Valérie Pécresse said on Friday she will not tell voters who to pick in the second round of the presidential election should she fail to make it past the first one on Sunday – a surprising move for a party that has always urged voters to block the far-right.

An EU directive on minimum wages “risks undermining collective bargaining and adding up complexities to the recovery and the resilience of the EU economy”, Stefano Mallia, who represents employers in the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), told EURACTIV.

The leaders of Spain and Morocco announced a new phase in bilateral relations at the conclusion of a meeting on Thursday (7 April) that marked the end of a nearly year-long diplomatic chill between the two nations.

Far-right lawmakers in the European Parliament urged the EU to focus on Ukrainian refugees instead of discussing discrimination against Romani people during a debate ahead of International Romani Day (8 April).

Last but not least, make sure you get your weekly dose of digital news in our Digital Brief and check out this week’s Tweets of the Week.

Look out for…

• France holds first round of presidential election on Sunday (10 April).
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen convenes global pledging event ‘Stand Up For Ukraine’ on Saturday (9 April).
• EU foreign ministers discuss latest developments concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at Foreign Affairs Council on Monday (11 April).
• Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson participates in event on security and stability of Ukrainian energy sector during the war and the post-war revitalisation on Monday (11 April).

Views are the author’s.

[Edited by Alice Taylor/Zoran Radosavljevic]